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Betting on sports ‘futures’ is an enjoyable and potentially profitable way to wager, but there are several potential risks that can lead to losses. Here’s a rundown of things to avoid:

Don’t bet at the first place you look: In other words, shop around for the best price. This is essential to all aspects of sports betting, but especially important with futures wagers. You’ll find more disparity between prices from book to book on futures than any other betting proposition. From a theoretical standpoint, a little work can yield much better value. From a practical standpoint, that means a higher payout should you win. The reason for this is that individual sportsbooks’ aren’t as worried about what the other guys are doing as they are with most other bets. Once the futures “market” is set books move the lines almost exclusively on their own financial position. The market simply doesn’t respond as quickly to futures wagers as it does to individual game lines so it is essential to do the extra work to get the best price on your proposition.

Don’t fixate on picking the winner from a competitive field: This may sound like strange advice, but from a theoretical standpoint it makes perfect sense. As with every other element of sport wagering its crucial to always focus not on winners and losers, but on the value you’re getting on individual bets. For example, in most years there are several teams with a realistic shot of winning at the start of the NCAA basketball tournament. The problem is that these top teams invariably offer low paybacks that are less than their ‘true odds’ of winning. Every team is subject to the same variables like injuries, slumps, bad matchups but backing teams that are ‘under the radar’ at higher prices offer more compensation for these ‘risks’.

To put this in more theoretical terms, the “true odds” of Duke winning the NCAA Championship are almost certainly higher than the price we’re getting. Obviously, determining the “true odds”, or actual probability of a future event is an inexact science but think of it this way: if the NCAA tournament was played 100 times would Duke wind up winning 50 of those? Given the number of other good teams and the propensity for upsets along the way, its doubtful. For the sake of argument, lets say that Duke has a 33% chance to win the tournament. That means that I wouldn’t consider a bet on Duke to be a good value unless I was getting a price that a) accurately reflected the true probability of their winning and b) gave me some compensation for assuming the “risk of the unknown” inherent in taking the position so far in advance. At +500 I might be interested, but at +200 the value just isn’t there.

In a less competitive field, there can be instances where even a big favorite is a good value. For example, lets say a book was to take action on a bikini contest between a Victoria’s Secret supermodel and three members of the Pittsburgh Penguins. The model would essentially be a 100% probability to win the contest, meaning that even a high chalk price would be a good value. Risking a lot of money to win a little is a tough thing to justify, however, even if the math makes sense.

Don’t try to make a huge profit with little risk: Sports betting provides few opportunities to make a ‘big killing’. It may happen occasionally, but even the big payouts when it occurs doesn’t make chasing big longshots a good value. If you’re serious about sports betting it is crucial to maintain your focus on the underlying numbers and look for value at all times. If you want to take a longshot at a huge jackpot, play the lottery but don’t try to do it at a sportsbook.

Simply stated, the concept of value works the same at the bottom of the wagering ladder as it does at the top. Even if you’re betting a big underdog at a huge price make sure that it accurately reflects the ‘true odds’ of the event occurring.

Don’t bet one sided props: Sometimes sports books will offer silly bets just to get publicity or in some cases just to be funny. While there may be life on other planets, the ‘true odds’ of a Martian being named to President Obama’s cabinet wouldn’t justify a +5000 line that it would occur.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and betting odds portal sites. He lives in Las Vegas, Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former interior secretary James Watt.

Although smoking is known to be extremely unhealthy, many smokers who decide to quit have an extremely hard time. There are a lot of methods to use, so don’t give up if you fail at first. Keep trying until you overcome this nasty habit. You are harming not only yourself, but anyone you come in contact with. A word of advice: talk to your doctor about quitting before you start any program.

Cold turkey is the number one way that people try to quit smoking. However, this is usually not successful. Basically cold turkey means that you stop smoking cigarettes one day and never have another one. While some people believe that they have the will power to do it, it really has little to do with willpower and more to do with that fact that your body is physically addicted to nicotine and you can have fairly serious withdrawal symptoms. Cold turkey does work for some people, but in general within a few days most people start smoking again.

Another popular method is to slowly wean oneself of nicotine through the use nicotine gum or patches. The directions for the use of these products are found on the packages, and a number of people have found this to be a successful method to quit smoking. The gum and patches allow you to wean yourself off at your own pace. Follow the directions on the package carefully. Make an appointment with your physician to go over you plan in depth. Although this method eliminates the craving for nicotine it does not satisfy the hand to mouth habit that smoking established. Smoking is usually a physical, mental and emotional addiction.

Finally, you can use medication to help you beat your smoking habit and nicotine addiction. Make an appointment with your doctor as soon as possible and discuss your options. They can prescribe a medication that has few side effects and has a good success rate. Never begin taking someone elses prescription medication, some medications could interfere with other medications you are currently taking.

Quitting smoking is a lifelong process. Many people find the social habit of smoking hard to beat long after the nicotine addiction is gone. You may need to temporarily alter your lifestyle while trying to quit smoking. For example many people enjoy a cigarette with a drink with friends. This social habit can be difficult to break and you may want to avoid any of these pitfalls for a while when you are still in the process of getting over the nicotine habit.

See your doctor immediately if you smoke. If you successfully quit smoking now you can add years to your life possibly avoid many diseases that are a result of smoking. Quit smoking now and do yourself and you body a favor.

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After canceling their 2009 season, the Arena Football League has shut down entirely and appears headed for bankruptcy. Earlier this week, the league office released a short statement indicated that it had ceased operations because owners were “unable to reach any consensus on restructuring the league over the past eight months.” The league had reached a new agreement with players earlier this year, but was unable to convince enough owners that they had a viable plan to return to profitability. The leagues statement continued that there are no other viable options available to the league right now.”

Even before the decision was made to cancel the 2009 season this past December, it had been a tumultuous off-season for the Arena Football League. It began with the resignation of long time AFL commissioner David Baker just two days before the Arena Bowl championship game. Though Baker put a positive spin on his resignation saying that he felt it was time, the timing was curious despite his insistence that it was due to “personal reasons”.

In October, the owner of the New Orleans VooDoo announced that the team would cease operations”despite being one of the league leaders in attendance. In announcing that the team would fold, owner Tom Benson (who also owns the NFL Saints) suggested that the end of the five year old franchise was in no way an indictment of the New Orleans market.

At that point, uncertainty began to reign over the leagues future. A dispersal draft to reassign the VooDoo personnel was scheduled and postponed several times amid assurances from the AFL office that rumors of financial instability were unfounded.

The inability to get any consensus on a business model for the league reportedly served as the final nail in the AFLs coffin. A major problem was skyrocketing player salaries, and some sort of compensation system tied to team revenues was a necessity. That agreement was reached with the players, but a bigger conflict between the owners on a variety of business model related issues were never able to be resolved.

Despite the demise of the Arena Football League, it wont be the end of the road for the twenty two year old sport. The 50 yard indoor war lives on in the AF2 league which, ironically, was originally started as something of a developmental organization for the AFL. The league plays in smaller markets and has a more realistic salary structure. A number of current AFL players”and possibly a couple of AFL franchises”could end up in AF2.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer specializing in casino gambling, travel and sports betting. He has appeared on a number of TV and radio programs offering strategies for successful NFL football betting. He lives in Southern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and a pet llama. He is currently writing a biography of former NFL quarterback Ryan Leaf.